FC Porto 1-4 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Porto at 47%, yet in-form Benfica provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Porto vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Do Dragão to take on FC Porto. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, FC Porto have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Porto at Estádio Do Dragão this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Do Dragão. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Porto are significantly better at Estádio Do Dragão than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 4, Benfica 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–4 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Porto trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 44% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 52% | Benfica 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 1.52 xG and Benfica 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.241 / defence 0.710 | Benfica attack 1.315 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.174. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Porto's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 FC Porto games / 61 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Porto 47% | Draw 26% | Benfica 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 3.70. FC Porto hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benfica (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Porto offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: FC Porto 40% | Benfica 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 47% | Draw 26% | Benfica 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Porto 1.52 / Benfica 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.241 / def 0.710 | Benfica attack 1.315 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Benfica kick off?
FC Porto vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto 1 - 4 Benfica.
Where is FC Porto vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Benfica part of?
FC Porto vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 47% chance of winning, Benfica a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Porto and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Benfica?
Record (7 meetings): FC Porto 4W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are FC Porto and Benfica in?
FC Porto (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 1.24x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus FC Porto's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.90
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Porto xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Benfica xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Porto and 1.10 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Porto come into this having played 61 games, going 39W 11D 11L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.38 PPG from 61 outings (46W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Porto on 2.10 PPG, Benfica on 2.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Porto's home form reads 21W 7D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.97 points per game from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Porto are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.82 conceded. FC Porto's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Benfica in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Benfica in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 39W 11D 11L in their last 61 games (2.10 PPG), while Benfica have gone 46W 7D 8L in their last 61 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Benfica away?
FC Porto's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.33 PPG; Benfica away: 1.97 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Benfica in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2024, when FC Porto won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Porto's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Porto
2
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 4, Benfica have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Benfica 2-2 FC Porto.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 47%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Porto) and 53% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benfica in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC Porto's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Porto vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Porto's recent games and 53% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Porto and Benfica tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Benfica in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Porto.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat FC Porto 1-4 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.52 xG and Benfica 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.24 / defence 0.71 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 47% | Draw 26% | Benfica 27%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 52%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Porto 2.10 PPG, Benfica 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.