Farense 1-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Estoril at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Farense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 0.40 PPG versus Estoril's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Farense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Estoril in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Farense, 1 for Estoril and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Farense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Farense in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Estoril in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 54% versus Estoril 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 54% | Estoril 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.03 xG and Estoril 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.747 / defence 1.347 | Estoril attack 0.936 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.088. Farense's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Farense games / 41 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 28% | Draw 27% | Estoril 45%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Estoril 2.22. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Farense 60% | Estoril 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 28% | Draw 27% | Estoril 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Farense 1.03 / Estoril 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.747 / def 1.347 | Estoril attack 0.936 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Estoril (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Estoril xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Estoril kick off?
Farense vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Estoril?
Farense 1 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Farense vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Estoril part of?
Farense vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 28% chance of winning, Estoril a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Farense and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 0 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Farense and Estoril in?
Farense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.68
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Farense xG
Total xG
2.40
1.37
Estoril xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Farense and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Farense and 1.37 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 8D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Farense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 0.95 PPG from 41 outings (10W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.93 PPG, Estoril on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.50 points per game from 20 outings (1W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.29 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Estoril in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 10W 8D 23L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Estoril have gone 10W 9D 22L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Estoril away?
Farense's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.10 PPG; Estoril away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Farense or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Estoril in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Farense's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Farense
1
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 2, Estoril have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Estoril 2-2 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Estoril?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 50%, Estoril 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Farense and 65% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Farense's games and 75% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Farense's matches and 65% of Estoril's.
Do Farense and Estoril tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Estoril in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Farense defy the odds to beat Estoril 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Estoril 1-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.03 xG and Estoril 1.37 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estoril landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.75 / defence 1.35 against Estoril attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 28% | Draw 27% | Estoril 45%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Farense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 54%, Estoril 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.93 PPG, Estoril 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.