Famalicao 1-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Famalicao take on Vizela.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vizela (all games): 1W 5D 3L across 9 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.89 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.67 for Famalicao, 0.89 for Vizela — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Famalicao 67% and Vizela 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 56% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.19 xG and Vizela 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.844 / defence 1.172 | Vizela attack 0.701 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 1.166. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Famalicao games / 9 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 37% | Vizela 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Vizela 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 75% | Vizela 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 37% | Vizela 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Famalicao 1.19 / Vizela 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.844 / def 1.172 | Vizela attack 0.701 / def 1.484 | league avg home 0.949 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Vizela xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Vizela kick off?
Famalicao vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Vizela?
Famalicao 1 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Famalicao vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Vizela part of?
Famalicao vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 37% chance of winning, Vizela a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Famalicao and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Vizela in?
Famalicao (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Vizela (all comps): 1W-5D-3L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.84x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.70x) against Famalicao's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.69
37%
2.68
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Vizela xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.96 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Famalicao have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 3D 5L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela's form line: 1W 5D 3L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Famalicao against 0.89 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Vizela in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Vizela away?
Famalicao's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.50 PPG; Vizela away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Famalicao
4
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Vizela have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Famalicao 3-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Vizela?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vizela tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 75%, Vizela 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Famalicao and 75% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Famalicao's recent matches and 25% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Famalicao's matches and 75% of Vizela's.
Do Famalicao and Vizela tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vizela in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Vizela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Vizela finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.19 xG and Vizela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Vizela attack 0.70 / defence 1.48, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 37% | Draw 37% | Vizela 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 56%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.67 PPG, Vizela 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.