Famalicao 3-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 2 for GIL Vicente and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus GIL Vicente 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | GIL Vicente 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.48 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.816 / defence 0.943 | GIL Vicente attack 0.888 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.306. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Famalicao games / 43 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 28%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 3.57. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 50% | GIL Vicente 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Famalicao 1.48 / GIL Vicente 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.816 / def 0.943 | GIL Vicente attack 0.888 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Famalicao 3 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente part of?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Famalicao and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Record (4 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.89x) against Famalicao's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.85
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.09 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 16W 8D 19L from 43 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 22L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Famalicao against 1.09 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 11W 2D 8L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 1D 16L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or GIL Vicente away?
Famalicao's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.67 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Famalicao or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
4
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 38%, GIL Vicente 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Famalicao) and 62% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Famalicao's recent matches and 62% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Famalicao's recent games and 62% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat GIL Vicente 3-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.48 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against GIL Vicente attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 28%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, GIL Vicente 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.30 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.