Estoril 0-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Braga at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Estoril welcome SC Braga to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Estoril) versus 1.90 (SC Braga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 1 for SC Braga and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 46% versus SC Braga 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 40% | SC Braga 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.24 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.922 / defence 1.030 | SC Braga attack 1.587 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.098. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.587 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Estoril games / 43 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 26% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 50%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | SC Braga 2.00. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 50% | SC Braga 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 26% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Estoril 1.24 / SC Braga 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.922 / def 1.030 | SC Braga attack 1.587 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.79
SC Braga xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs SC Braga kick off?
Estoril vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Estoril 0 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Estoril vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs SC Braga part of?
Estoril vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 26% chance of winning, SC Braga a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Estoril and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
Record (2 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.92) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
26%
3.79
23%
4.32
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.03
1.79
SC Braga xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
4%
22.83
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Estoril and 1.79 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estoril's recent record stands at 13W 15D 15L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 9L across 43 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 5W 10D 6L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 12W 4D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estoril are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.77 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 13W 15D 15L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 25W 9D 9L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Estoril or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SC Braga in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when SC Braga won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, SC Braga have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Braga 1-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 57%, SC Braga 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estoril) and 52% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Braga in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Estoril's recent matches and 48% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estoril's recent games and 52% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and SC Braga tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.24 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against SC Braga attack 1.59 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 26% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 50%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 40%, SC Braga 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.