Estoril 3-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 5W 0D 5L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Maritimo's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estoril lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Maritimo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 42% versus Maritimo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 39% | Maritimo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.57 xG and Maritimo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.892 / defence 1.072 | Maritimo attack 0.822 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.090. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Estoril games / 67 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 23%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 4.35. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 20% | Maritimo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Estoril 1.57 / Maritimo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.892 / def 1.072 | Maritimo attack 0.822 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Estoril (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Maritimo xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Maritimo kick off?
Estoril vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Maritimo?
Estoril 3 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Estoril vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Maritimo part of?
Estoril vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 52% chance of winning, Maritimo a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Maritimo?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Estoril and Maritimo in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estoril's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Maritimo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.82x) against Estoril's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.95
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.53
0.96
Maritimo xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Estoril and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Estoril and 0.96 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 18W 17D 32L from 67 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 35L across 67 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Estoril against 0.96 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 10W 10D 13L from 33 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 6W 7D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 16W 16D 35L in their last 67 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Maritimo away?
Estoril's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.21 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Estoril 3-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Maritimo?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 46%, Maritimo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Estoril) and 54% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 30% of games; Maritimo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Estoril's recent matches and 58% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Estoril's recent games and 54% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Maritimo tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Maritimo 3-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.57 xG and Maritimo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Maritimo attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 23%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 39%, Maritimo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.06 PPG, Maritimo 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.