Estoril 2-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estoril haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Famalicao haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Estoril against 1.30 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Estoril 0W, Famalicao 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Famalicao winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 50% versus Famalicao 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Famalicao 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.38 xG and Famalicao 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.948 / defence 1.017 | Famalicao attack 1.028 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.083. Data: 34 Estoril games / 34 Famalicao games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 31%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 50% | Famalicao 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Estoril 1.38 / Famalicao 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.948 / def 1.017 | Famalicao attack 1.028 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Estoril (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Famalicao xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Famalicao kick off?
Estoril vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril 2 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Estoril vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Famalicao part of?
Estoril vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 42% chance of winning, Famalicao a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estoril and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.95) and Famalicao's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.03x) against Estoril's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.74
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.51
1.13
Famalicao xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Estoril and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estoril and 1.13 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. Estoril haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 13L across 34 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. Famalicao haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Estoril against 1.15 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 4W 8D 5L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Pre-Season
Famalicao
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Famalicao away?
Estoril's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.18 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Estoril or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Famalicao in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 59%, Famalicao 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Estoril) and 59% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Famalicao in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Estoril's games and 59% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Estoril's matches and 59% of Famalicao's.
Do Estoril and Famalicao tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Famalicao 2-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.38 xG and Famalicao 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Famalicao landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Famalicao 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.15 PPG, Famalicao 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.