Estoril 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Estoril at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Estoril's favour (1.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Boavista, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Boavista have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 54% versus Boavista 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 61% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.51 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.892 / defence 0.987 | Boavista attack 0.833 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: 54 Estoril games / 54 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Boavista 4.17. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Boavista lead the H2H ledger, but Estoril carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | Boavista 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Estoril 1.51 / Boavista 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.892 / def 0.987 | Boavista attack 0.833 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Estoril (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Boavista kick off?
Estoril vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Estoril 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Estoril vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Boavista part of?
Estoril vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 49% chance of winning, Boavista a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
Record (7 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 2 | Boavista 4W.
What form are Estoril and Boavista in?
Estoril (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Boavista (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.89) and Boavista's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.83x) against Estoril's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.64
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Boavista xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
18.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estoril and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Estoril and 0.98 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Estoril have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 12D 26L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 9W 17D 28L from 54 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Estoril against 0.81 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estoril have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (12W 4D 11L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 5W 6D 16L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 0.96 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Boavista in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 16W 12D 26L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Boavista have gone 9W 17D 28L in their last 54 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Boavista away?
Estoril's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.48 PPG; Boavista away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
4
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Boavista have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Estoril 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 37%, Boavista 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 56% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games; Boavista in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Estoril's recent matches and 56% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Estoril's recent games and 56% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Boavista tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Boavista in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.51 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Boavista attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 61%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.11 PPG, Boavista 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.