Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vitória SC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chaves face Vitória SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Chaves welcome Vitória SC to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitória SC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vitória SC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chaves's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chaves register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Vitória SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Vitória SC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Chaves's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–5 with Vitória SC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Vitória SC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vitória SC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Vitória SC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Vitória SC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.04 xG and Vitória SC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.839 / defence 1.388 | Vitória SC attack 0.971 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.216. Data: 59 Chaves games / 59 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Vitória SC 2.00. Vitória SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitória SC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitória SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Vitória SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Chaves 1.04 / Vitória SC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.839 / def 1.388 | Vitória SC attack 0.971 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Vitória SC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Vitória SC kick off?
Chaves vs Vitória SC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Chaves 1 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Chaves vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Vitória SC part of?
Chaves vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 23% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chaves and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vitória SC?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 0 | Vitória SC 3W.
What form are Chaves and Vitória SC in?
Chaves (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Vitória SC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.84) and Vitória SC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitória SC's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
23%
4.31
26%
3.79
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.68
1.64
Vitória SC xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
22.20
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Chaves and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Chaves and 1.64 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves's recent record stands at 16W 17D 26L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitória SC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 19L across 59 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitória SC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitória SC's away record stands at 11W 6D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 30W 10D 19L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Vitória SC away?
Vitória SC's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.21 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Chaves or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Vitória SC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vitória SC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Vitória SC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Vitória SC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chaves
0
Draws
4
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vitória SC?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 0, Vitória SC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 66%, Vitória SC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chaves) and 52% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Vitória SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Chaves's games and 48% of Vitória SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chaves's recent games and 52% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Chaves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Chaves 1-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.04 xG and Vitória SC 1.64 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.39 against Vitória SC attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Vitória SC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.