Chaves 2-2 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Chaves welcome Estoril to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estoril — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Estoril's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.10 (Estoril). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chaves, 1 for Estoril and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estoril in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Estoril 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Estoril 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.58 xG and Estoril 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.891 / defence 1.442 | Estoril attack 0.960 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.260. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Chaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Chaves games / 63 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 23% | Estoril 42%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Estoril 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Estoril 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 23% | Estoril 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Chaves 1.58 / Estoril 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.891 / def 1.442 | Estoril attack 0.960 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Estoril (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Estoril xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Estoril kick off?
Chaves vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Estoril?
Chaves 2 - 2 Estoril.
Where is Chaves vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Estoril part of?
Chaves vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 35% chance of winning, Estoril a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Chaves and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Estoril?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 1 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Chaves and Estoril in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Estoril (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.89) and Estoril's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.34
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.33
1.75
Estoril xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Chaves and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chaves and 1.75 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 17D 29L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Estoril's form line: 18W 10D 35L from 63 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.08 PPG, Estoril on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (9W 8D 14L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 7D 20L from 31 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.21 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Estoril in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 17W 17D 29L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Estoril have gone 18W 10D 35L in their last 63 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Estoril away?
Chaves's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.13 PPG; Estoril away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
2
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Estoril have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Chaves 2-2 Estoril.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 68%, Estoril 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Chaves) and 45% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Estoril in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Chaves's games and 55% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Chaves's recent games and 45% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Estoril tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Estoril in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves and Estoril share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 30, as Chaves and Estoril drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.58 xG and Estoril 1.75 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Estoril attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 35% | Draw 23% | Estoril 42%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Estoril 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.08 PPG, Estoril 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.