Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Casa Pia host Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Moreirense — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Casa Pia at 1.30 PPG versus Moreirense's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 2, Moreirense 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Moreirense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 54% versus Moreirense 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Moreirense 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.46 xG and Moreirense 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.011 / defence 1.274 | Moreirense attack 0.971 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.200. Data: 57 Casa Pia games / 57 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 37% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 38%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Moreirense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 70% | Moreirense 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 37% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Casa Pia 1.46 / Moreirense 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.011 / def 1.274 | Moreirense attack 0.971 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Moreirense xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Moreirense kick off?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Casa Pia vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Moreirense part of?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 37% chance of winning, Moreirense a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Casa Pia and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Record (5 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Moreirense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (1.01) and Moreirense's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
37%
2.70
25%
4.04
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.95
1.48
Moreirense xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.48 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 17W 16D 24L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Moreirense, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 24L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.18 PPG, Moreirense on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 10W 9D 9L from 28 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Moreirense's away record stands at 7W 4D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.25 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Moreirense away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.39 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2024, when Casa Pia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
1
Draws
4
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
From 7 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Moreirense have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 64%, Moreirense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Casa Pia) and 54% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Moreirense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Moreirense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Casa Pia's games and 50% of Moreirense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Casa Pia's recent games and 54% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Moreirense tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 24, as Casa Pia and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.46 xG and Moreirense 1.48 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.01 / defence 1.27 against Moreirense attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 37% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 38%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Moreirense 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Moreirense's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.18 PPG, Moreirense 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.