Casa Pia 0-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Casa Pia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
GIL Vicente away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, GIL Vicente have the stronger record — 3 wins to Casa Pia's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended Casa Pia 0–2 GIL Vicente — a GIL Vicente win.
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 40% versus GIL Vicente 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 39% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.605 / defence 0.956 | GIL Vicente attack 0.934 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.286. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.605 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 57 games and GIL Vicente's last 57.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 31% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 40%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.23 | Draw 3.38 | GIL Vicente 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (GIL Vicente 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 30% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 31% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Casa Pia 0.98 / GIL Vicente 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.605 / def 0.956 | GIL Vicente attack 0.934 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
GIL Vicente xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 31% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.93x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Casa Pia's last 57 games and GIL Vicente's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
31%
3.23
30%
3.38
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
GIL Vicente xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.15 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 18W 13D 26L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 28L across 57 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.11 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 1D 21L across their last 28 away games, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.16 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
Casa Pia (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 12D 28L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.14 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia's games tend to start slowly — only 29% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 39%, GIL Vicente 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Casa Pia) and 64% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 39% of games; GIL Vicente in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Casa Pia and GIL Vicente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 57% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Casa Pia's recent games and 64% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 29% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 71% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and GIL Vicente finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.60 / defence 0.96 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 31% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 40%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 39%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.18 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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