Casa Pia 1-2 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Casa Pia welcome Chaves to Estádio Nacional. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Nacional: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.67 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nacional this season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's away record: 3W 0D 4L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Casa Pia are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Casa Pia's 0% and Chaves's 14% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chaves in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Casa Pia 25% | Chaves 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 25% | Chaves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Chaves 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.673 / defence 0.789 | Chaves attack 0.793 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.083. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Casa Pia's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 Casa Pia games / 12 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 42% | Draw 34% | Chaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Chaves 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Chaves's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 0% | Chaves 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 42% | Draw 34% | Chaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Casa Pia 1.00 / Chaves 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.673 / def 0.789 | Chaves attack 0.793 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Chaves xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Chaves kick off?
Casa Pia vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Casa Pia 1 - 2 Chaves.
Where is Casa Pia vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Chaves part of?
Casa Pia vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 42% chance of winning, Chaves a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Casa Pia and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and Chaves in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Chaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.97
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.68
0.68
Chaves xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.68 for Chaves, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Chaves have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Chaves in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Chaves have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Chaves away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.67 PPG; Chaves away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Chaves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Casa Pia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
0
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Chaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Casa Pia 0% BTTS, Chaves 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Casa Pia and 50% for Chaves.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Chaves in 33%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games; Chaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 17% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Chaves tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chaves in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Casa Pia 1-2 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Chaves 0.68 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chaves outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.67 / defence 0.79 against Chaves attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 42% | Draw 34% | Chaves 24%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Chaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 25%, Chaves 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Chaves's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Chaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.