Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.04 xG and Benfica 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Benfica attack 1.217 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.075. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 Casa Pia games / 35 Benfica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 26% | Benfica 48%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.08. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 26% | Benfica 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Casa Pia 1.04 / Benfica 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Benfica attack 1.217 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Benfica (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Benfica xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Benfica kick off?
Casa Pia vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Casa Pia vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Benfica part of?
Casa Pia vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 26% chance of winning, Benfica a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Casa Pia and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
26%
3.81
26%
3.87
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.55
1.50
Benfica xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.50 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Casa Pia's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Benfica in 0%.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Benfica in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Casa Pia or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Benfica in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Benfica won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 0% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Casa Pia's recent games and 100% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Benfica tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Benfica in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.04 xG and Benfica 1.50 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Benfica attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 26% | Draw 26% | Benfica 48%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 0%, Benfica 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.