Boavista 1-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boavista at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Boavista have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Maritimo (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Boavista's favour (1.70 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Boavista 0W, Maritimo 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–4 with Maritimo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Boavista — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Maritimo — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 62% versus Maritimo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 50% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 2.11 xG and Maritimo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.985 / defence 1.044 | Maritimo attack 0.834 / defence 1.576. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.089. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.576 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Boavista games / 42 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Maritimo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Boavista (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 50% | Maritimo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Boavista 2.11 / Maritimo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.985 / def 1.044 | Maritimo attack 0.834 / def 1.576 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Boavista (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Maritimo xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Maritimo kick off?
Boavista vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Maritimo?
Boavista 1 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Boavista vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Maritimo part of?
Boavista vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 64% chance of winning, Maritimo a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Boavista and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Boavista and Maritimo in?
Boavista (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.98) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.83x) against Boavista's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.00
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Boavista xG
Total xG
3.05
0.95
Maritimo xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
51.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Boavista and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Boavista and 0.95 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 17D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 0.90 PPG from 42 outings (9W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Boavista against 0.90 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 7W 10D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 12W 17D 13L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Maritimo away?
Boavista's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.48 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Boavista
2
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, Maritimo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Maritimo 4-2 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 57%, Maritimo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Boavista) and 62% (Maritimo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Boavista's games and 62% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Boavista's recent games and 62% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Maritimo tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Maritimo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 9, as Boavista and Maritimo drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 2.11 xG and Maritimo 0.95 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Maritimo attack 0.83 / defence 1.58, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.26 PPG, Maritimo 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.