Boavista 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boavista have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Boavista against 1.00 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boavista lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Boavista — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 63% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 55% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.760 / defence 1.159 | GIL Vicente attack 0.823 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.283. Boavista's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Boavista games / 65 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 37%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | GIL Vicente 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 60% | GIL Vicente 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Boavista 1.17 / GIL Vicente 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.760 / def 1.159 | GIL Vicente attack 0.823 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.22
GIL Vicente xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Boavista vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Boavista 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Boavista vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs GIL Vicente part of?
Boavista vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 35% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boavista and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
Record (5 meetings): Boavista 1W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Boavista and GIL Vicente in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.76x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.82x) against Boavista's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.61
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.39
1.22
GIL Vicente xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Boavista and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Boavista and 1.22 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 17D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.06 PPG from 65 outings (18W 15D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Boavista against 1.06 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 12W 12D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.72 points per game from 32 outings (7W 2D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.09 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Current Season
GIL Vicente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 18W 15D 32L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or GIL Vicente away?
Boavista's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.50 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Boavista
2
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Boavista 1-3 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 66%, GIL Vicente 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Boavista) and 62% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Boavista's games and 53% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Boavista's matches and 62% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Boavista and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 32, as Boavista and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 1.22 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against GIL Vicente attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 37%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 55%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.14 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.