Benfica 4-0 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (87%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Benfica face Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Portimonense travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Benfica have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Benfica's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Portimonense stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portimonense's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Portimonense, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Benfica 3–1 Portimonense — a Benfica win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Benfica and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 39% versus Portimonense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | Portimonense 43%). Note also that Portimonense surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 3.55 xG and Portimonense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.576 / defence 0.687 | Portimonense attack 0.948 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.239. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.576 — their 3.55 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Portimonense's defence rating of 1.457 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Portimonense's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 56 games and Portimonense's last 56.
Result probabilities: Benfica 87% | Draw 9% | Portimonense 5%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.15 | Draw 11.63 | Portimonense 21.37. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (87%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 87% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 4.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Portimonense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 50% (last 10 home games) | Portimonense 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 87% | Draw 9% | Portimonense 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% (Under 19%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Benfica 3.55 / Portimonense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.576 / def 0.687 | Portimonense attack 0.948 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Benfica (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.55
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Portimonense xG
54%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Benfica vs Portimonense FAQs
What time does Benfica vs Portimonense kick off?
Benfica vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Portimonense?
Benfica 4 - 0 Portimonense.
Where is Benfica vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Portimonense part of?
Benfica vs Portimonense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 87% chance of winning, Portimonense a 5% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benfica and Portimonense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Benfica vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.58x the league average against Portimonense's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 3.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Benfica's last 56 games and Portimonense's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (8.5%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
87%
1.15
9%
11.63
5%
21.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.55
Benfica xG
Total xG
4.36
0.81
Portimonense xG
1.15
87%
Home win
11.63
9%
Draw
21.37
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
3%
34.74
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Benfica vs Portimonense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Benfica and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 3.55 expected goals for Benfica and 0.81 for Portimonense, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Portimonense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 56 games, going 45W 7D 4L for 2.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Portimonense sit at 1.00 PPG from 56 outings (16W 8D 32L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Portimonense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 24W 3D 1L across their last 28 home games, a 2.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Portimonense have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 2D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.88 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
Benfica (Home) vs Portimonense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Benfica
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Benfica vs Portimonense Form FAQs
What form are Benfica and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 45W 7D 4L in their last 56 games (2.54 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 16W 8D 32L in their last 56 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Portimonense away?
Benfica's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.68 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Benfica or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Portimonense in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 May 2023, when Benfica won Portimonense 1-5 Benfica.
Benfica's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Benfica
0
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Benfica vs Portimonense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Portimonense?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Benfica have won 5, Portimonense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Portimonense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2024: Benfica 4-0 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Portimonense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 46%, Portimonense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Benfica) and 46% (Portimonense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Portimonense in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Benfica vs Portimonense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Benfica and Portimonense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benfica's recent matches and 36% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Benfica and Portimonense matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Benfica's matches and 46% of Portimonense's.
Do Benfica and Portimonense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Benfica's recent matches and 79% of Portimonense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Portimonense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Portimonense 4-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.55 xG and Portimonense 0.81 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Portimonense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.58 / defence 0.69 against Portimonense attack 0.95 / defence 1.46, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 87% | Draw 9% | Portimonense 5%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 87%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Portimonense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Portimonense's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Portimonense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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