Benfica 2-1 Alverca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Alverca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Alverca travel to Estádio da Luz to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio da Luz this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alverca — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alverca have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benfica, 0 for Alverca and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Benfica in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Alverca in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 45% versus Alverca 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Alverca 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.71 xG and Alverca 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.311 / defence 0.730 | Alverca attack 0.745 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.240. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Alverca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Benfica's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Benfica games / 20 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Alverca 7%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Alverca 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | Alverca 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio da Luz • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Alverca 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 46% | xG Benfica 2.71 / Alverca 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.311 / def 0.730 | Alverca attack 0.745 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Benfica (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Alverca xG
46%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Alverca kick off?
Benfica vs Alverca kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estádio da Luz.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica 2 - 1 Alverca.
Where is Benfica vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Luz.
What competition is Benfica vs Alverca part of?
Benfica vs Alverca is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 80% chance of winning, Alverca a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benfica and Alverca will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Alverca?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Alverca 0W.
What form are Benfica and Alverca in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Alverca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.31) and Alverca's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alverca's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
80%
1.25
13%
7.66
7%
14.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.38
0.67
Alverca xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.66
13%
Draw
14.75
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
7%
15.04
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Alverca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 20 games, going 13W 7D 0L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alverca sit at 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Alverca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 5W 4D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Alverca have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alverca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Alverca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Alverca in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 13W 7D 0L in their last 20 games (2.30 PPG), while Alverca have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Alverca away?
Benfica's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.11 PPG; Alverca away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Benfica or Alverca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Alverca in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Alverca runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Alverca?
From 2 meetings on record, Benfica have won 2, Alverca have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Alverca last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Alverca?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 67%, Alverca 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Benfica and 67% for Alverca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alverca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Alverca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 56% of Alverca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Alverca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Benfica's matches and 67% of Alverca's.
Do Benfica and Alverca tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alverca in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Alverca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Alverca 2-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.71 xG and Alverca 0.67 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.73 against Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Alverca 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Alverca 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Alverca's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.