Belenenses 1-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Belenenses welcome Vizela to Estádio Nacional. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Belenenses at Estádio Nacional this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Vizela — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Belenenses 0.90 PPG, Vizela 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Belenenses, 1 for Vizela and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Vizela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Belenenses trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Vizela trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 41% versus Vizela 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Belenenses 31% | Vizela 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 1.20 xG and Vizela 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.793 / defence 1.334 | Vizela attack 0.959 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.227. Belenenses's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Belenenses's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Belenenses games / 29 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 28% | Draw 27% | Vizela 45%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Vizela 2.22. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vizela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 40% | Vizela 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 28% | Draw 27% | Vizela 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Belenenses 1.20 / Vizela 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.793 / def 1.334 | Vizela attack 0.959 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Vizela (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Vizela xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Vizela kick off?
Belenenses vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Vizela?
Belenenses 1 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Belenenses vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Vizela part of?
Belenenses vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 28% chance of winning, Vizela a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Belenenses and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Vizela?
Record (1 meetings): Belenenses 0W | Draws 0 | Vizela 1W.
What form are Belenenses and Vizela in?
Belenenses (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Vizela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Belenenses's attack at 0.79x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.65
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.77
1.57
Vizela xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.57 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Belenenses have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 4W 9D 16L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Vizela's form line: 6W 11D 12L from 29 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Belenenses on 0.72 PPG, Vizela on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Belenenses have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.07 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Current Season
Vizela
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Vizela in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 4W 9D 16L in their last 29 games (0.72 PPG), while Vizela have gone 6W 11D 12L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Vizela away?
Belenenses's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 1.07 PPG; Vizela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and Vizela runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Belenenses
0
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Vizela?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 1, Vizela have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Belenenses 1-0 Vizela.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 50%, Vizela 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Belenenses) and 71% (Vizela). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Belenenses have failed to score in 36% of games; Vizela in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Belenenses's games and 71% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Belenenses's matches and 71% of Vizela's.
Do Belenenses and Vizela tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vizela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Belenenses defy the odds to beat Vizela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Belenenses beat Vizela 1-0 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 1.20 xG and Vizela 1.57 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vizela landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Vizela attack 0.96 / defence 1.45, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 28% | Draw 27% | Vizela 45%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Belenenses win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 31%, Vizela 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Vizela's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.72 PPG, Vizela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Belenenses win broke the near-deadlock. Belenenses (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.