AVS 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as AVS welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AVS — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, AVS have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. GIL Vicente's 2.20 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of AVS's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AVS, 1 for GIL Vicente and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with AVS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AVS in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 48% versus GIL Vicente 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 50% | GIL Vicente 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 0.73 xG and GIL Vicente 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.768 / defence 1.392 | GIL Vicente attack 1.164 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.327. AVS's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIL Vicente's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 AVS games / 44 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AVS 10% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 69%. Fair-value odds: AVS 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | GIL Vicente 1.45. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AVS 40% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 10% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG AVS 0.73 / GIL Vicente 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.768 / def 1.392 | GIL Vicente attack 1.164 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
AVS xG
Expected Goals
2.15
GIL Vicente xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AVS vs GIL Vicente kick off?
AVS vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs GIL Vicente?
AVS 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is AVS vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs GIL Vicente part of?
AVS vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 10% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AVS and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will AVS vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and GIL Vicente?
Record (2 meetings): AVS 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are AVS and GIL Vicente in?
AVS (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AVS's attack rating (0.77) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus AVS's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
10%
9.59
20%
4.93
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
AVS xG
Total xG
2.88
2.15
GIL Vicente xG
9.59
10%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
12%
8.60
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
1%
82.47
33%
2.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AVS and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for AVS and 2.15 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AVS's recent record stands at 6W 14D 24L from 44 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 18L across 44 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AVS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AVS have managed 4W 6D 12L from 22 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AVS are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.11 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AVS and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 6W 14D 24L in their last 44 games (0.73 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 0.82 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.09 PPG.
Have AVS or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
AVS have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2026, when GIL Vicente won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AVS's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AVS
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, AVS have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AVS and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when GIL Vicente 3-0 AVS.
Who has won more matches between AVS and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AVS see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 41%, GIL Vicente 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AVS) and 46% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 32%; AVS have failed to score in 41% of games; GIL Vicente in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AVS play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AVS's recent matches and 46% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AVS vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AVS's recent games and 46% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
AVS have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AVS and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 11, as AVS and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.73 xG and GIL Vicente 2.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against GIL Vicente attack 1.16 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 10% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 69%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 50%, GIL Vicente 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.