Arouca 0-6 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Primeira Liga appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
SC Braga trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 67% versus SC Braga 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 60% | SC Braga 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.28 xG and SC Braga 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.968 / defence 1.380 | SC Braga attack 0.733 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.361. SC Braga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Arouca games / 15 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 38%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | SC Braga 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 71% | SC Braga 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Arouca 1.28 / SC Braga 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.968 / def 1.380 | SC Braga attack 0.733 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SC Braga xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs SC Braga kick off?
Arouca vs SC Braga kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs SC Braga?
Arouca 0 - 6 SC Braga.
Where is Arouca vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs SC Braga part of?
Arouca vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 34% chance of winning, SC Braga a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Arouca and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and SC Braga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arouca and SC Braga in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.97x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.64
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.66
1.38
SC Braga xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Arouca and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arouca and 1.38 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arouca's recent record stands at 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 3L across 15 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Arouca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Braga's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Arouca are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.60 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Braga in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.43 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Arouca or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, SC Braga in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arouca and SC Braga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Dec 2021, when SC Braga won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Arouca
0
Draws
9
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 1, SC Braga have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Braga 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 71%, SC Braga 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Arouca) and 29% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 43%; SC Braga in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Arouca's games and 43% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arouca vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Arouca's recent games and 29% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and SC Braga tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Arouca 0-6 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.28 xG and SC Braga 1.38 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 1.38 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.97 / defence 1.38 against SC Braga attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 38%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 60%, SC Braga 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.