Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 17 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Wisla Krakow to KGHM Zaglebie Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.50 PPG versus Wisla Krakow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Wisla Krakow 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 54% versus Wisla Krakow 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Wisla Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.810 / defence 0.751 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.795 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.298. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Zaglebie Lubin games / 11 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Draw 34% | Wisla Krakow 18%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Wisla Krakow 5.56. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Wisla Krakow 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Draw 34% | Wisla Krakow 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 / Wisla Krakow 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.810 / def 0.751 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.795 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Wisla Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 48% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.81x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
48%
2.10
34%
2.91
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.14
0.78
Wisla Krakow xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.78 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 3L across 11 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.64 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Zaglebie Lubin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 64%.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 2.17 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2021, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 33%, Wisla Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Wisla Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 67% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.