Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Widzew Łódź at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at KGHM Zaglebie Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.60 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 56% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 52% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.165 / defence 0.868 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.064 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.219. Data: 50 Zaglebie Lubin games / 51 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 / Widzew Łódź 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.165 / def 0.868 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.064 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 57% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 3W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.08
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
3.15
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
40.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.12 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 15W 13D 22L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 17W 8D 25L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.16 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 4D 15L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 8D 25L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.50 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Widzew Łódź 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Zaglebie Lubin and 62% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 62% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 62% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.