Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% rate and Warta Poznań's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Warta Poznań and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 45% versus Warta Poznań 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 xG and Warta Poznań 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.908 / defence 0.806 | Warta Poznań attack 1.198 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.997. Data: 42 Zaglebie Lubin games / 42 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 26%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Warta Poznań 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Warta Poznań 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 / Warta Poznań 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.908 / def 0.806 | Warta Poznań attack 1.198 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Warta Poznań xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 43% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Record (4 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.20
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.27
0.96
Warta Poznań xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.96 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 10D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (14W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.38 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Warta Poznań in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.30 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Warta Poznań 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Zaglebie Lubin and 30% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 40%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 35% of games; Warta Poznań in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 30% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 30% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 xG and Warta Poznań 0.96 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Warta Poznań attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 26%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.