Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KGHM Zaglebie Arena plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.60 for Raków Częstochowa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Raków Częstochowa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 5 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 52% | Raków Częstochowa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / defence 0.976 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.234 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.186. Raków Częstochowa have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Zaglebie Lubin games / 54 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 / Raków Częstochowa 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / def 0.976 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.234 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Raków Częstochowa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 38% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (9 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 3W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.23x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.69
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.92
1.43
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.43 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 13D 23L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 54 outings (29W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 2.00 points per game from 27 outings (16W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 29W 12D 13L in their last 54 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.48 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Raków Częstochowa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 37% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 37% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.43 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.23 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.