Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Puszcza Niepołomice travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 August 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zaglebie Lubin, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 56% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.034 / defence 1.069 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.810 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.125. Data: 36 Zaglebie Lubin games / 36 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Puszcza Niepołomice 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.034 / def 1.069 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.810 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 2 August 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 1.03x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.35
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.32
0.97
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.97 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 9W 14D 13L from 36 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.33 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 5D 11L from 18 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 9W 14D 13L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.50 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 61%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 33% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 33% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 26%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.