Wisla Plock 2-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 1.60 PPG versus Pogon Szczecin's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 58% and Pogon Szczecin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 25% | Pogon Szczecin 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.928 / defence 0.883 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.957 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Data: 12 Wisla Plock games / 47 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 4.35. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 43% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Wisla Plock 1.59 / Pogon Szczecin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.928 / def 0.883 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.957 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock 2 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 50% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.93x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.59
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.60
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 6W 4D 2L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Plock are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pogon Szczecin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.17 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 50%, Pogon Szczecin 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Plock's games and 67% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 23%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 25%, Pogon Szczecin 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.