Wisla Plock 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Plock. A 0.50 PPG lead over Piast Gliwice (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wisla Plock, 2 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 63% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.193 / defence 0.878 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.958 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.197. Data: 44 Wisla Plock games / 43 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 60% | Piast Gliwice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Plock 1.66 / Piast Gliwice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.193 / def 0.878 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.958 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Piast Gliwice xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 53% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.96x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.10
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.67
1.01
Piast Gliwice xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
22.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 5D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.51 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wisla Plock's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.30 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 20W 5D 18L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.14 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 43%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wisla Plock) and 29% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 33%; Piast Gliwice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 29% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.01 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 63%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.