Wisla Plock 0-4 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Wisla Plock welcome Motor Lublin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 3D 3L at Orlen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Motor Lublin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Motor Lublin's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 0 for Motor Lublin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Motor Lublin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 32% | Motor Lublin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.01 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.610 / defence 1.059 | Motor Lublin attack 1.047 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.091. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Wisla Plock games / 65 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Motor Lublin 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 30% | Motor Lublin 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.01 / Motor Lublin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.610 / def 1.059 | Motor Lublin attack 1.047 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin?
Wisla Plock 0 - 4 Motor Lublin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 29% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 1 | Motor Lublin 0W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
29%
3.48
33%
3.05
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.21 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 12W 9D 10L from 31 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 10L across 31 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.45 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Motor Lublin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 12W 9D 10L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 9W 12D 10L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Motor Lublin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.80 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-4 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 27%, Motor Lublin 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Wisla Plock) and 60% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 40% of games; Motor Lublin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 67% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 60% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Motor Lublin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Wisla Plock 0-4 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.01 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.61 / defence 1.06 against Motor Lublin attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 32%, Motor Lublin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.45 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.