Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 2W 2D 6L at Orlen Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jagiellonia — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 2 for Jagiellonia and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.90 xG and Jagiellonia 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / defence 0.997 | Jagiellonia attack 1.436 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 38 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 15% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 57%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Plock 10% | Jagiellonia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 15% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Wisla Plock 0.90 / Jagiellonia 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / def 0.997 | Jagiellonia attack 1.436 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Jagiellonia xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 15% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
15%
6.65
28%
3.64
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.77
1.87
Jagiellonia xG
6.65
15%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
2%
42.97
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.87 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 11D 15L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 18W 11D 10L from 39 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.28 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 8D 4L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.67 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 18W 11D 10L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.47 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 21%, Jagiellonia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Wisla Plock) and 58% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 32%; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 63% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 58% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.