Wisla Krakow 2-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Piast Gliwice are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Piast Gliwice 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wisla Krakow trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 46% versus Piast Gliwice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 50% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 0.69 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.746 / defence 1.065 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.913 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.098. Wisla Krakow's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Wisla Krakow games / 26 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Piast Gliwice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Wisla Krakow's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 20% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Wisla Krakow 0.69 / Piast Gliwice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.746 / def 1.065 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.913 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Wisla Krakow 2 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 22% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
22%
4.54
35%
2.82
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
1.76
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
4.54
22%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.07 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 6D 14L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 10W 7D 9L from 26 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.25 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Krakow 25% BTTS, Piast Gliwice 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Wisla Krakow and 25% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 33%; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 42% of games; Piast Gliwice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 27, as Wisla Krakow and Piast Gliwice drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 0.69 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Krakow beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 43%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 50%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.