Wisla Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wisla Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 0.80 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 52% versus Jagiellonia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 52% | Jagiellonia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.151 / defence 1.308 | Jagiellonia attack 0.806 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.261. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Wisla Krakow games / 31 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 27%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 3.70. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 40% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.87 / Jagiellonia 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.151 / def 1.308 | Jagiellonia attack 0.806 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 50% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (1.15) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.81x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.28
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
3.20
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
4%
24.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.33 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 12L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 1.13 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.16 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Jagiellonia away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.27 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 40%, Jagiellonia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Wisla Krakow and 73% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games; Jagiellonia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 67% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 73% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Krakow fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.15 / defence 1.31 against Jagiellonia attack 0.81 / defence 1.54, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 27%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 52%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 0.97 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.