Warta Poznań 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to face Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pogon Szczecin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Warta Poznań 0W, Pogon Szczecin 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Pogon Szczecin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 35% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.07 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.860 / defence 1.292 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.032 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.205. Data: 37 Warta Poznań games / 37 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 25% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 49%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 2.04. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 70% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 25% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Warta Poznań 1.07 / Pogon Szczecin 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.860 / def 1.292 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.032 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Warta Poznań 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 25% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (2 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.86) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.03x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
25%
4.06
26%
3.82
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.68
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.61 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.92 PPG from 37 outings (20W 11D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Warta Poznań's home form reads 4W 6D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.81 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.00 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 56%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Warta Poznań and 28% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 39%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 28% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Warta Poznań 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Warta Poznań 1-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.07 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 25% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 49%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 35%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.