Stal Mielec 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Stal Mielec welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Stal Mielec have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Warta Poznań — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 0 for Warta Poznań and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 61% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 46% | Warta Poznań 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.88 xG and Warta Poznań 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.855 / defence 1.282 | Warta Poznań attack 0.909 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.108. Data: 28 Stal Mielec games / 28 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 24% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 45%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Warta Poznań 2.22. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 24% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stal Mielec 0.88 / Warta Poznań 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.855 / def 1.282 | Warta Poznań attack 0.909 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Warta Poznań xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań part of?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 24% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.85) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
24%
4.17
31%
3.20
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
Warta Poznań xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.29 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 8W 9D 11L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 8W 9D 11L from 28 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.18 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.96 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Warta Poznań away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.62 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Warta Poznań have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 54%, Warta Poznań 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stal Mielec) and 31% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 31%; Warta Poznań in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 23% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 31% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Warta Poznań edge out Stal Mielec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Stal Mielec 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.88 xG and Warta Poznań 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.85 / defence 1.28 against Warta Poznań attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 24% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 45%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 46%, Warta Poznań 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.18 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.