Stal Mielec 0-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Piast Gliwice (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stal Mielec face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski w Mielcu plays host to Stal Mielec versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stal Mielec have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Piast Gliwice are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Piast Gliwice hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
It is worth noting that Piast Gliwice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 37% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 31% | Piast Gliwice 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.11 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / defence 1.017 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.075 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.038. Data: 35 Stal Mielec games / 35 Piast Gliwice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 35% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 36%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 40% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 35% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Stal Mielec 1.11 / Piast Gliwice 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / def 1.017 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.075 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 35% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.92x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.07x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.35
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.25
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.14 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 11W 11D 13L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 13L across 35 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.43 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 6W 7D 4L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 8W 4D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.09 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.47 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Piast Gliwice 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 35%, Piast Gliwice 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Stal Mielec and 18% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 35%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 41% of games; Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 35% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 18% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.11 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 35% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 36%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 31%, Piast Gliwice 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.26 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.