Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 0.60 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 73% and Zaglebie Lubin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slask Wroclaw 64% | Zaglebie Lubin 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.61 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.923 / defence 1.428 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.717 / defence 1.579. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.110. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.579 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Slask Wroclaw games / 22 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 26%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.85. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.61 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.923 / def 1.428 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.717 / def 1.579 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 47% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.72x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.70
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.14 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 7D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (7W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.05 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.14 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 7W 2D 13L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.30 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 0-3 on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 70%, Zaglebie Lubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Slask Wroclaw and 70% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 70% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin finished level at 0-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.61 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.92 / defence 1.43 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.72 / defence 1.58, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 26%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.14 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.