Slask Wroclaw 2-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 3D 1L at Stadion Miejski — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slask Wroclaw are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slask Wroclaw register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Jagiellonia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 69% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 62% | Jagiellonia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.47 xG and Jagiellonia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.861 / defence 1.079 | Jagiellonia attack 0.748 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.231. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Slask Wroclaw games / 13 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 24%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 4.17. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slask Wroclaw 67% | Jagiellonia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.47 / Jagiellonia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.861 / def 1.079 | Jagiellonia attack 0.748 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 47% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.86) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.41
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.46
0.99
Jagiellonia xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.99 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 5W 5D 3L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 4L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.54 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Jagiellonia away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.60 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
6
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 60%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Slask Wroclaw) and 60% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 14, as Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.47 xG and Jagiellonia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Jagiellonia attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 24%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 62%, Jagiellonia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.54 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.