Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Górnik Łęczna make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 2D 0L across 3 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Górnik Łęczna have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.34 in Slask Wroclaw's favour (1.67 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Górnik Łęczna in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Górnik Łęczna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 100% and Górnik Łęczna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slask Wroclaw 67% | Górnik Łęczna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.55 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.038 / defence 1.172 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.833 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.162. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Slask Wroclaw games / 3 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 26% | Górnik Łęczna 28%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Górnik Łęczna 3.57. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 100% | Górnik Łęczna 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 26% | Górnik Łęczna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.55 / Górnik Łęczna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.038 / def 1.172 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.833 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Górnik Łęczna xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 47% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (1.04) and Górnik Łęczna's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Górnik Łęczna's attack (0.83x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.87
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Górnik Łęczna xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.14 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Górnik Łęczna in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 0, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Slask Wroclaw, 67% for Górnik Łęczna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Slask Wroclaw and 67% for Górnik Łęczna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 67% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 67% of Górnik Łęczna's.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Górnik Łęczna finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.55 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Górnik Łęczna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 26% | Górnik Łęczna 28%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 67%, Górnik Łęczna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slask Wroclaw managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Górnik Łęczna conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.