Slask Wroclaw 0-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Slask Wroclaw welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 1.00 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slask Wroclaw register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 78% and Cracovia Krakow 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 72% | Cracovia Krakow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.977 / defence 1.167 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.179. Data: 18 Slask Wroclaw games / 18 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 43% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 75% | Cracovia Krakow 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 43% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.43 / Cracovia Krakow 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.977 / def 1.167 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.60
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.17 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.33 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.62 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Slask Wroclaw at 75%, Cracovia Krakow at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Slask Wroclaw) and 50% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 62% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Slask Wroclaw 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 43% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 31%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 72%, Cracovia Krakow 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.33 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.