Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Stadion Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at Stadion Raków: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Raków.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, Wisla Krakow 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Wisla Krakow trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 53% versus Wisla Krakow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Raków Częstochowa 74% | Wisla Krakow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.17 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.323 / defence 0.983 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.734 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.215. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Raków Częstochowa games / 19 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 67% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 14%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Wisla Krakow 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 44% | Wisla Krakow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 67% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.17 / Wisla Krakow 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.323 / def 0.983 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.734 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Wisla Krakow xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 67% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.32) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.23
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.05
0.88
Wisla Krakow xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
62.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.88 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 10L across 19 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.00 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 44%, Wisla Krakow 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Raków Częstochowa and 56% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 56% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 56% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Wisla Krakow 2-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.17 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.88 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Krakow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.32 / defence 0.98 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 67% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 14%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 74%, Wisla Krakow 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.