Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Ruch Chorzów's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruch Chorzów away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.70 PPG lead over Ruch Chorzów (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Raków Częstochowa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 5–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ruch Chorzów — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 60% versus Ruch Chorzów 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Ruch Chorzów 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.49 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.407 / defence 0.758 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.931 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.140. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Raków Częstochowa games / 25 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 73% | Draw 19% | Ruch Chorzów 9%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Ruch Chorzów 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Ruch Chorzów 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 73% | Draw 19% | Ruch Chorzów 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.49 / Ruch Chorzów 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.407 / def 0.758 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.931 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ruch Chorzów xG
52%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 73% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Ruch Chorzów 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.41) and Ruch Chorzów's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruch Chorzów's attack (0.93x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
73%
1.37
19%
5.40
9%
11.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.29
0.81
Ruch Chorzów xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
11.49
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
8%
12.03
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
138.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.81 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 8D 5L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruch Chorzów sit at 0.72 PPG from 25 outings (2W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Ruch Chorzów — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 9W 3D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ruch Chorzów have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (0W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 12W 8D 5L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 2W 12D 11L in their last 25 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.50 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Ruch Chorzów been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ruch Chorzów in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
0
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 33%, Ruch Chorzów 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 58% (Ruch Chorzów).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ruch Chorzów in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Ruch Chorzów?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 67% of Ruch Chorzów's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 58% of Ruch Chorzów's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 26, as Raków Częstochowa and Ruch Chorzów drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.49 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.81 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.41 / defence 0.76 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 73% | Draw 19% | Ruch Chorzów 9%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Ruch Chorzów 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.