Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.60 PPG, Jagiellonia 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Jagiellonia and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 60% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 51% | Jagiellonia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / defence 0.998 | Jagiellonia attack 1.134 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.194. Data: 37 Raków Częstochowa games / 37 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 32% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 35%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Jagiellonia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 32% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.30 / Jagiellonia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / def 0.998 | Jagiellonia attack 1.134 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jagiellonia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 5 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 32% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Record (9 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 4W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
32%
3.10
33%
3.03
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.65
1.35
Jagiellonia xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.35 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 16W 7D 14L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 17W 11D 9L from 37 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.49 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 8D 3L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.59 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 14L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 17W 11D 9L in their last 37 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.56 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 44%, Jagiellonia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Raków Częstochowa) and 56% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 61% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 56% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 2-5 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Jagiellonia attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 32% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 51%, Jagiellonia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.49 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.