Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 9W 1D 0L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 45% versus Cracovia Krakow 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 53% | Cracovia Krakow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.88 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.518 / defence 0.735 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.925 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.080. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Raków Częstochowa games / 58 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 13%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Cracovia Krakow 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Raków Częstochowa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.88 / Cracovia Krakow 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.518 / def 0.735 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.925 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cracovia Krakow xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 63% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 0W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.52) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.21
13%
7.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.61
0.73
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
7.81
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
2%
51.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.73 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 58 games, going 38W 13D 7L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.38 PPG from 58 outings (21W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 21W 7D 1L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.16 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 38W 13D 7L in their last 58 games (2.19 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.41 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 45%, Cracovia Krakow 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Raków Częstochowa) and 34% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 45% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 34% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Cracovia Krakow 4-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.88 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.73 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.52 / defence 0.73 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 13%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 53%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.