Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to zondacrypto Arena to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cracovia Krakow, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Raków Częstochowa.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Cracovia Krakow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 40% | Cracovia Krakow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.855 / defence 0.824 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.742 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.112. Data: 62 Raków Częstochowa games / 62 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cracovia Krakow's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.12 / Cracovia Krakow 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.855 / def 0.824 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.742 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Cracovia Krakow xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 45% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (8 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 4W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.85) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.03
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
1.80
0.68
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.68 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 16D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.42 PPG from 62 outings (23W 19D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.76 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 15W 7D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.47 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 63%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 16D 15L in their last 62 games (1.76 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.73 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Cracovia Krakow 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Raków Częstochowa) and 57% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Cracovia Krakow 4-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.68 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.76 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.