Radomiak Radom 1-6 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 0.80 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 36% | Zaglebie Lubin 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.897 / defence 1.088 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.672 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.186. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Radomiak Radom games / 31 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.00. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.25 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.897 / def 1.088 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.672 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Zaglebie Lubin xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 6 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.35
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.12
0.87
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.87 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 14D 7L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.03 PPG from 31 outings (9W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.42 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 6W 7D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.13 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 14D 7L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.67 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, Zaglebie Lubin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 60% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Zaglebie Lubin in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zaglebie Lubin run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 1-6 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.87 projection by 5.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.67 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 25%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.42 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.