Radomiak Radom 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 60% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Raków Częstochowa 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.37 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.981 / defence 1.053 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.883 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.196. Data: 20 Radomiak Radom games / 20 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 30%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.37 / Raków Częstochowa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.981 / def 1.053 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.883 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 42% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.64
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 9W 9D 2L from 20 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 4L across 20 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.80 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 5W 5D 0L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.90 scored and 1.10 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's attacking output running into Radomiak Radom's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 9D 2L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 80%, Raków Częstochowa at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Radomiak Radom) and 70% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Radomiak Radom's games and 60% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 70% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.37 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 30%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Raków Częstochowa 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.80 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.