Radomiak Radom 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Radomiak Radom, 1.30 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Radomiak Radom 0W, Pogon Szczecin 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 52% and Pogon Szczecin 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.064 / defence 1.166 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.257 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.261. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Radomiak Radom games / 50 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 45%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Pogon Szczecin 2.22. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Pogon Szczecin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.55 / Pogon Szczecin 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.064 / def 1.166 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.257 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 33% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.06x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.26x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
33%
3.07
22%
4.46
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.40
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
5%
19.51
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.85 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 17D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.82 PPG from 50 outings (25W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 8D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (10W 10D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.80 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 16D 9L in their last 50 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.52 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 60%, Pogon Szczecin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Radomiak Radom) and 36% (Pogon Szczecin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Radomiak Radom's games and 60% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 36% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 1-2 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 45%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.