Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.30 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Legia Warszawa 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.082 / defence 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.044 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.175. Data: 58 Radomiak Radom games / 58 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Legia Warszawa 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.66 / Legia Warszawa 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.082 / def 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.044 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.08) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
48%
2.11
26%
3.83
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 19W 16D 23L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 18L across 58 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.26 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 13W 7D 9L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 7W 11D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.52 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 21W 19D 18L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.59 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 66%, Legia Warszawa at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Radomiak Radom) and 52% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Radomiak Radom's games and 69% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.