Radomiak Radom 4-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lechia Gdansk are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lechia Gdansk 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 60% versus Lechia Gdansk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Lechia Gdansk 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.39 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.859 / defence 1.244 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.022 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.216. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Radomiak Radom games / 37 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 41%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Lechia Gdansk 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | Lechia Gdansk 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.39 / Lechia Gdansk 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.859 / def 1.244 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.022 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Lechia Gdansk xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom 4 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.86x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
34%
2.92
25%
4.08
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.94
1.55
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.55 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 16D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.62 PPG from 37 outings (17W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.41 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 7W 8D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.49 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 16D 9L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.53 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 6, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 68%, Lechia Gdansk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Radomiak Radom) and 53% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Radomiak Radom's games and 47% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 53% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 4-1 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.39 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.55 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 41%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Lechia Gdansk 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.41 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.