Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction & Preview

Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Radomiak Radom face Lech Poznan.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Radomiak Radom host Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Lech Poznan have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Lech Poznan's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Radomiak Radom.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2026, ended Radomiak Radom 1–5 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Lech Poznan have won 6 of 10 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 66% and Lech Poznan 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Radomiak Radom 60% | Lech Poznan 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Radomiak Radom surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Lech Poznan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.42 xG and Lech Poznan 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / defence 1.129 | Lech Poznan attack 1.354 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Lech Poznan have an above-average attack rating of 1.354, which lifts their away xG to 1.99. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 48 games and Lech Poznan's last 47.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 50%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.87 | Draw 4.05 | Lech Poznan 2.02. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 80% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 70% (last 10 away games).

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